流动人口长期居留意愿特征及影响因素演变研究——基于学历分异视角

冯建喜; 赵璇; 汤爽爽; 罗小龙

doi:10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2025.04.011

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人文地理 ›› 2025, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (4) : 108-118. DOI: 10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2025.04.011

人口

流动人口长期居留意愿特征及影响因素演变研究——基于学历分异视角

冯建喜¹, 赵璇¹, 汤爽爽², 罗小龙¹

作者信息 +

EVOLUTIONARY ANALYSIS OF THE CHARACTERISTICS AND IMPACTING FACTORS OF FLOATING POPULATION’S LONG-TERM RESIDENCE INTENTION: BASED ON EDUCATIONAL DIFFERENTIATION

FENG Jian-xi¹, ZHAO Xuan¹, TANG Shuang-shuang², LUO Xiao-long¹

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文章历史 +

摘要

在抢“人才”转向抢“人口”的背景下，亟需加强对不同学历流动人口长期居留意愿的研究，为制定多元平衡的人口政策提供支撑。基于2014年、2018年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据探究不同学历流动人口长期居留意愿特征和影响因素及其演变规律。发现不同学历流动人口的长期居留意愿特征和影响因素均有显著差异，低学历流动人口长期居留意愿在东西方向上的分异比高学历更明显。经济特征更影响低学历人口长期居留决策，家庭特征对高学历群体影响更大，且随时间推移经济特征对两类人群的影响均下降，家庭特征影响均增强。城市群外大城市对两类人群长期居留吸引力最大且随时间显著增强。总体而言，随时间变化两类群体长期居留的影响因素趋同。

Abstract

In the context of a shifting focus from 'talent' to 'population' in the battle for talents, there is an urgent need to increase attention to the long-term residence intention of low-educated floating populations in cities. Based on data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) in 2014 and 2018, and using junior college education as a dividing line, this paper explores the differences in characteristics and influencing factors of long-term residence intention among floating population of different educational backgrounds, and how these differences evolve over time. The findings are as follows: 1) Over time, the long-term residence intention among these two groups has significantly increased in the western and central regions. 2) In terms of influencing factors, economic characteristics exert a greater influence on the long-term residence decisions of the less educated migrants, while family characteristics have a stronger impact on those with higher education. Over the years, the economic factors' influence on both groups diminisher, whereas the significance of family characteristics grows. 3) At the city level, large cities outside of urban agglomerations hold the greatest appeal for long-term residency among both highly and less educated individuals. High-educated people weigh factors such as industry and natural environment more heavily than those with low educational attainment when making long-term residence decisions. However, the considerations of these two groups tend to converge as time goes on. The comparative study enriches the analysis of group heterogeneity in the field of migrants, and complements the insufficient research on migrants with lower educational levels.

导出引用

冯建喜, 赵璇, 汤爽爽, 罗小龙. 流动人口长期居留意愿特征及影响因素演变研究——基于学历分异视角[J]. 人文地理. 2025, 40(4): 108-118 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2025.04.011

FENG Jian-xi, ZHAO Xuan, TANG Shuang-shuang, LUO Xiao-long. EVOLUTIONARY ANALYSIS OF THE CHARACTERISTICS AND IMPACTING FACTORS OF FLOATING POPULATION’S LONG-TERM RESIDENCE INTENTION: BASED ON EDUCATIONAL DIFFERENTIATION[J]. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY. 2025, 40(4): 108-118 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2025.04.011

中图分类号： C922

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