EVOLUTIONARY ANALYSIS OF THE CHARACTERISTICS AND IMPACTING FACTORS OF FLOATING POPULATION’S LONG-TERM RESIDENCE INTENTION: BASED ON EDUCATIONAL DIFFERENTIATION
FENG Jian-xi1, ZHAO Xuan1, TANG Shuang-shuang2, LUO Xiao-long1
1. School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China; 2. School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210093, China
Abstract：In the context of a shifting focus from 'talent' to 'population' in the battle for talents, there is an urgent need to increase attention to the long-term residence intention of low-educated floating populations in cities. Based on data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) in 2014 and 2018, and using junior college education as a dividing line, this paper explores the differences in characteristics and influencing factors of long-term residence intention among floating population of different educational backgrounds, and how these differences evolve over time. The findings are as follows: 1) Over time, the long-term residence intention among these two groups has significantly increased in the western and central regions. 2) In terms of influencing factors, economic characteristics exert a greater influence on the long-term residence decisions of the less educated migrants, while family characteristics have a stronger impact on those with higher education. Over the years, the economic factors' influence on both groups diminisher, whereas the significance of family characteristics grows. 3) At the city level, large cities outside of urban agglomerations hold the greatest appeal for long-term residency among both highly and less educated individuals. High-educated people weigh factors such as industry and natural environment more heavily than those with low educational attainment when making long-term residence decisions. However, the considerations of these two groups tend to converge as time goes on. The comparative study enriches the analysis of group heterogeneity in the field of migrants, and complements the insufficient research on migrants with lower educational levels.
冯建喜, 赵璇, 汤爽爽, 罗小龙. 流动人口长期居留意愿特征及影响因素演变研究——基于学历分异视角[J]. 人文地理, 2025, 40(4): 108-118.
FENG Jian-xi, ZHAO Xuan, TANG Shuang-shuang, LUO Xiao-long. EVOLUTIONARY ANALYSIS OF THE CHARACTERISTICS AND IMPACTING FACTORS OF FLOATING POPULATION’S LONG-TERM RESIDENCE INTENTION: BASED ON EDUCATIONAL DIFFERENTIATION. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, 2025, 40(4): 108-118.
刘涛,卓云霞,王洁晶.邻近性对人口再流动目的地选择的影响[J]. 地理学报,2020,75(12):2716-2729.[Liu Tao, Zhuo Yunxia, Wang Jiejing. How multi-proximity affects destination choice in onward migration:A nested logit model[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(12):2716-2729.]
[2]
杨雪,魏洪英.流动人口长期居留意愿的新特征及影响机制[J].人口研究,2017,41(5):63-73.[Yang Xue, Wei Hongying. New features and influencing mechanisms of migrant long-term residence tendency[J]. Population Research, 2017,41(5):63-73.]
[3]
朱纪广. 劳动力技能互补的时空效应及其对城市工资的影响[J]. 经济经纬,2021,38(6):13-20.[Zhu Jiguang. The Spatial-temporal effect of labor skill complementation and its influence on urban wages[J]. Economic Survey, 2021,38(6):13-20.]
[4]
陆铭.大城市不需要低端劳动力吗?[J].上海国资,2016(6):17.[Lu Ming. Don't big cities need low-educated labour?[J]. State-Owned Assets of Shanghai, 2016(6):17.]
[5]
顾阳". 聚人才"转向"增人口"有何深意[N].经济日报,2023-11-24(5).[Gu Yang. What are the implications of shifting from'gathering talents' to 'increasing population'?[N]. Economic Daily, 2023-11-24(5).]
[6]
林赛南,冯馨,王雨.流动人口再流动的空间选择特征及影响因素[J]. 地理科学,2023,43(9):1537-1547.[Lin Sainan, Feng Xin, Wang Yu. Migrants' spatial choice in onward migration:Features and mechanisms[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2023,43(9):1537-1547.]
[7]
朱宇,林李月.流动人口在城镇的居留意愿及其决定因素:文献综述及其启示[J]. 人口与经济,2019(2):17-27.[Zhu Yu, Lin Liyue. The settlement intention of the floating population in the cities and its determinants:A literature review and its implications[J]. Population & Economics, 2019(2):17-27.]
[8]
田明,徐庆文.流动人口居留意愿的梯次关系与决定机制[J].地理学报,2023,78(6):1376-1391.[Tian Ming, Xu Qingwen. Process and determinisms of settlement intention among China's migrant workers[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2023,78(6):1376-1391.]
[9]
党云晓,张文忠,谌丽,等.居住环境满意度对流动人口定居意愿的影响[J].西北人口,2021,42(5):105-114.[Dang Yunxiao, Zhang Wenzhong, Chen Li, et al. The influence of living environment satisfaction on migrants' settlement intention[J]. Northwest Population Journal, 2021, 42(5):105-114.]
[10]
林坤,林李月,朱宇,等.中国流动人口落户意愿及其变化:基于高、低技能流动人口的比较研究[J].地域研究与开发,2021,40(3):169-174.[Lin Kun, Lin Liyue, Zhu Yu. Analysis of change of differentskilled migrants' hukou transfer intention in China[J]. Areal Research and Development, 2021,40(3):169-174.]
[11]
王珩,龚岳.中国流动人才居留意愿和时长的空间分布及影响因素[J].地理科学,2023,43(1):61-71.[Wang Heng, Gong Yue. Spatial distribution and influencing factors of migrant talents' settlement intention and settlement duration in China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2023,43(1):61-71.]
[12]
古恒宇,李琦婷,沈体雁.东北三省流动人口居留意愿的空间差异及影响因素[J].地理科学,2020,40(2):261-269.[Gu Hengyu, Li Qiting, Shen Tiyan. Spatial difference and influencing factors of floating population's settlement intention in the three provinces of northeast China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2020,40(2):261-269.]
[13]
王蓉,黄桂田.城市落户门槛与异质性劳动力居留意愿[J].上海经济研究,2022(6):36-50.[Wang Rong, Huang Guitian. Urban hukou registration threshold and settlement intention of heterogeneous workers[J]. Shanghai Journal of Economics, 2022(6):36-50.]
[14]
尹上岗,王蕊,周俊杰,等.城市房价对流动人口居留意愿的影响效应:以长三角地区为例[J].人文地理,2024,39(4):36-45.[Yin Shanggang, Wang Rui, Zhou Junjie, et al. The impact of urban housing price on the settlement intention of floating population:A case study of the Yangtze River Delta Region[J]. Human Geography, 2024,39(4):36-45.]
[15]
赵如婧,周皓.基本公共服务、城市规模与流动人口居留意愿:基于 20102017年流动人口动态监测调查数据[J]. 西北人口,2021, 42(6):1-16.[Zhao Rujing, Zhou Hao. Access to urban public services, city size and migrants' settlement intention:Based on the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (2012-2017)[J]. Northwest Population Journal, 2021,42(6):1-16.]
[16]
李建民.中国的人口新常态与经济新常态[J].人口研究,2015,39(1):3-13.[Li Jianmin. China's new normal in population and economy[J]. Population Research, 2015,39(1):3-13.]
[17]
林赛南,王雨,马海涛.中国高学历流动人口流动的空间特征及形成机制[J]. 地理研究,2022,41(12):3229-3244.[Lin Sainan, Wang Yu, Ma Haitao. Spatial mobility pattern of highly educated migrants and its mechanisms in China[J]. Geographical Research, 2022,41(12):3229-3244.]
[18]
Lewis W A. Economic development with unlimited supplies of labour[J]. The Manchester School, 1954,22(2):139-191.
[19]
Massey D S, Arango J, Hugo G, et al. Theories of international migration:A review and appraisal[J]. Population & Development Review, 1993,19(3):431-466.
[20]
Stark O, Bloom D E. The New Economics of Labor Migration[J]. The American Economic Review, 1985,75(2):173-178.
[21]
陈诚,杨巧.城市视角下农民工居留和落户意愿分异特征及影响因素研究[J]. 华中科技大学学报(社会科学版),2021,35(5):69-80, 113.[Chen Cheng, Yang Qiao. Study on the differentiated features and influencing factors of migrant workers' willingness to stay and settle down from the urban perspective[J]. Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology(Social Science Edition), 2021,35(5):69-80,113.]
[22]
Cohen M P. Determining sample size for surveys with data analyzed by hierarchical linear models[J]. Journal of Official Statistics, 1998,14(3):267-275.
[23]
古恒宇,肖凡,沈体雁,等.中国城市流动人口居留意愿的地区差异与影响因素:基于2015年流动人口动态监测数据[J]. 经济地理, 2018,38(11):22-29.[Gu Hengyu, Xiao Fan, Shen Tiyan, et al. Spatial difference and influencing factors of settlement intention of urban floating population in China:Evidence from the 2015 national migrant population dynamic monitoring survey[J]. Economic Geography, 2018,38(11):22-29.]
[24]
林赛南,张旭,郭炎.城市环境感知、生活满意度与流动人口的心理健康影响机理研究:以武汉市为例[J].人文地理,2023,38(2):97-105.[Lin Sainan, Zhang Xu, Guo Yan. Urban environmental perception, life satisfaction and migrants' mental health:A case study of Wuhan, China[J]. Human Geography, 2023,38(2):97-105.]
[25]
张吉鹏,卢冲.户籍制度改革与城市落户门槛的量化分析[J].经济学(季刊),2019,18(4):1509-1530.[Zhang Jipeng, Lu Chong. A quantitative analysis on the reform of household registration in Chinese cities[J]. China Economic Quarterly, 2019,18(4):1509-1530.]
[26]
王洁晶,张沐华,王霓霓.中国流动人口分布的空间格局和影响因素:基于人口普查分县数据的研究[J]. 人口学刊,2023,45(4):82-96.[Wang Jiejing, Zhang Muhua, Wang Nini. Spatial pattern and influencing factors of China's migrant population distribution:A study based on county-level data from national population censuses[J]. Population Journal, 2023,45(4):82-96.]
[27]
Diamond R. The determinants and welfare implications of US workers' diverging location choices by skill:1980-2000[J]. American Economic Review, 2016,106(3):479-524.
[28]
夏午宁,岳宏志.城市房价对劳动力流入的动态效应研究[J].西北人口,2022,43(5):49-64.[Xia Wuning, Yue Hongzhi. Research on dynamic effect of urban housing price on labor migration[J]. Northwest Population Journal, 2022,43(5):49-64.]
[29]
扈新强,赵玉峰.从离散到聚合:中国流动人口家庭化分析[J].人口研究,2021,45(4):69-84.[Hu Xinqiang, Zhao Yufeng. From separation to reunion:An analysis of the familization of migrants in China[J]. Population Research, 2021,45(4):69-84.]
[30]
柯文前,朱宇,陈晨,等.1995-2015年中国人口迁移的时空变化特征[J]. 地理学报,2022,77(2):411-425.[Ke Wenqian, Zhu Yu, Chen Chen, et al. Spatio-temporal evolution of migration in China from 1995 to 2015[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022,77(2):411-425.]
陈小昆,曹阳阳.个人特征、城市特征与流动人口户籍迁移意愿:基于分层广义线性模型[J]. 新疆财经,2021(5):26-37.[Chen Xiaokun, Cao Yangyang. Personal characteristics, urban characteristics and household registration migration intention of floating population:Based on Hierarchical Generalized Linear Model[J]. Finance & Economics of Xinjiang, 2021(5):26-37.]
