共同富裕目标下黄河流域生态福利绩效时空演变及其影响因素

doi:10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2025.04.015

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摘要着眼共同富裕目标，构建共同富裕导向下的生态福利绩效评价指标体系，采用Super-EBM模型测度2011—2021年黄河流域生态福利绩效，组合运用核密度估计、趋势面分析、空间自相关和随机森林模型分析其时空演变特征及影响因素。结果表明：①黄河流域生态福利绩效呈缓慢波动上升趋势，空间上呈“南高北低，东高西低”的分布格局。高水平地区集中于陇南、关中平原及豫南，低水平地区分布于河西走廊及黄河“几字弯”。②黄河流域生态福利绩效具有空间正相关性并具有一定俱乐部效应，高—高集聚区位于黄河流域下游，低—低集聚区位于内蒙古和陕北。③黄河流域生态福利绩效的前三位影响因子为：对外开放、政府调控、经济基础。对外开放、政府调控、金融发展、数字经济与生态福利绩效呈正向变动关系且具有门槛效应，经济基础、产业结构与生态福利绩效呈“W”型变动关系。本文完善了生态福利绩效的评价指标体系，并为推进黄河流域生态文明建设和共同富裕提供政策依据。

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关键词 ：生态福利绩效, 共同富裕, 民生福祉, 随机森林模型, 黄河流域

Abstract：Focusing on the goal of common prosperity, an ecological welfare performance evaluation index system under the guidance of common prosperity is constructed. The Super-EBM model is used to measure the ecological welfare performance of the Yellow River Basin from 2011 to 2021. The kernel density estimation, trend surface analysis, spatial autocorrelation and random forest model are used to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors. The results show that: 1) The ecological welfare performance of the Yellow River Basin has increased, and its spatial distribution pattern is“high in the south and low in the north, high in the east and low in the west”.2) The ecological welfare performance of the Yellow River Basin has significant positive spatial correlation and has club effect.3) The top three influencing factors of ecological welfare performance in the Yellow River Basin are opening up, government regulation, and economic foundation.

Key words： ecological welfare performance common prosperity well-being of people's livelihood Random Forest Model Yellow River Basin

收稿日期: 2024-08-03

PACS:

K902

基金资助:山东省自然科学基金项目（ZR2022MD104，ZR2024MD022）；山东省泰山学者青年专家计划（tsqn202306183）；山东省高等学校青创团队计划项目（2023RW048）

通讯作者: 吴殿廷（1958—），男，满族，辽宁大连人，博士，教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为区域经济学。E-mail: wudianting@bnu.edu.cn。 E-mail: wudianting@bnu.edu.cn

作者简介: 赵林（1988—），男，山东泰安人，博士，副教授，主要研究方向为经济地理与福利经济学。E-mail: zhaolin19880112@126.com。

引用本文:

赵林, 冯轩, 张学波, 宋小语, 吴殿廷. 共同富裕目标下黄河流域生态福利绩效时空演变及其影响因素[J]. 人文地理, 2025, 40(4): 147-158. ZHAO Lin, FENG Xuan, ZHANG Xue-bo, SONG Xiao-yu, WU Dian-ting. SPATIO-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF ECOLOGICAL WELFARE PERFORMANCE IN THE YELLOW RIVER BASIN UNDER THE GOAL OF COMMON PROSPERITY. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, 2025, 40(4): 147-158.

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http://rwdl.xisu.edu.cn/CN/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2025.04.015 或 http://rwdl.xisu.edu.cn/CN/Y2025/V40/I4/147

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