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挑战与应战：中美对“印太战略”地区典型国家地缘影响力测度与分析
CHALLENGES AND RESPONSES: MEASUREMENT AND ANALYSIS OF THE GEOPOLITICAL INFLUENCE OF CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES ON COUNTRIES IN THE INDO-PACIFIC STRATEGY
随着中美博弈主战场逐渐由亚太拓展至“印太”，美国在中国周边打造的“印太之弧”对原有相对稳定的地区秩序造成冲击。本文通过构建地缘影响力模型分析中美对“印太战略”地区典型国家地缘影响力的时空演变并结合楔子战略提出中国的地缘应对。研究得出以下结论: 中美对“印太战略”地区地缘影响力总和变化呈现出“低位波动”（2011—2015）—“中位接近”（2016—2018）—“高位稳定”（2019—2021）的演进阶段，中国对该地区国家地缘影响力年均增长11.2%。分国别研究中，中美与地区国家地缘权力演化包括权力稳定、权力反超和权力震荡三种类型。根据中美地缘影响力差值划分的地缘类属区显示，美国的地缘优势区表现在澳、菲、日、新西兰四国，而印尼、马来、越南、文莱则处于中国的地缘优势区，中美在印、韩、泰、新加坡形成地缘均势。从楔子战略的作用力方式上，中国在地缘优势区应主要以报偿楔子为主，而对地缘劣势区与均势区，则以强压与报偿的混合一体模式进行实施。
As US-China rivalry shifts focus to the "Indo-Pacific," the US's "Indo-Pacific Arc" disrupts regional stability. This paper applies "territorial trap" theory to develop a geopolitical influence model integrated with the wedge strategy. Analyzing spatiotemporal changesin US and Chinese influence within the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" region provides recommendations for China. Findings: 1) Overall US-China influence evolved through "low volatility" (2011—2015), "medium convergence" (2016—2018), and "high stability" (2019—2021) phases, with China's influence growing 11.2% annually; 2) Country-level analysis shows three power evolution types: stable, reversal, fluctuation; 3) Geopolitical categorization reveals US advantage (Australia, Philippines, Japan, New Zealand), China advantage (Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei), and balanced influence (India, South Korea, Thailand, Singapore); 4) Influence model factors align with wedge strategy methods. Strategically, China should prioritize reward wedges in advantage zones and mixed coercive/reward strategies elsewhere.
Indo-Pacific strategy / geographical influence / Sino-American competition / wedge strategy
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