经济全球化背景下,国际"贸易-交通-旅游"(3T)互动日益增强。采用1982-2011年时间序列数据,分析国际贸易、交通和旅游总量的发展历程,从进、出口分量视角考察三者相关关系,运用最小二乘法构建回归方程。结果发现:①30年来国际贸易、交通和旅游的发展呈持续增长态势。国际贸易和旅游日益重要。②国际贸易、交通和旅游增长过程具有同步性,表现为波动周期同涨同落。③所构建的回归方程决断系数R²均在0.99以上,国际贸易、交通和旅游存在显著相关性。国际货运与国际贸易,国际客运与国际旅游之间具有确定、直接的因果关系;国际贸易与国际旅游的因果性尚待探究。

In the context of economic globalization, interaction of international "trade, transport and tourism" (3T) grows increasingly crucial. In this paper, the development processes and temporal synchronization of international trade, transport and tourism are analyzed using the relevant statistical data of 1982-2011. Based on this, the correlations between and among 3T are studied from the perspectives of both import and export. Moreover, three groups of, in total twelve, regression equations are built between international trade and transport, international tourism and transport and international trade and tourism by means of statistical analysis. And the results are as follows:1) International trade, transport and tourism have kept growing constantly in the 30 years, reflecting the increasing importance of international trade and tourism and growingly active mobility of persons and cargos in the context of globalization; 2) International trade, transport and tourism have developed synchronously within the three decades, whose undulation periods are with the same rises and falls. Among them, interconnection of transport plays a role as the material basis to promote trade of goods and transfer of people; 3) The decisive coefficients R2 of the three groups of and in total twelve regression equations are all above 0.99, which indicates the significant correlations between and among international trade, transport and tourism. The relationship between international freight transport and trade and that between international passenger transport and tourism are definitively direct causal relations. This paper presents the international "trade-transportation-tourism" (3T) interactive conceptual model, providing a theoretical basis for the development of tourism in China. From the perspective of the relationship between international tourism and international trade, China should focus on broader bilateral tourism and trade markets, paying attention to the inbound tourism markets of neighboring counties.