基于"交互胁迫验证-动态耦合应用-协调类型判别"框架,构建了城市化与生态环境发展状态综合评价指标体系,运用交互胁迫模型和耦合协调度测算模型对珠三角地区9个城市2000年以来的城市化与生态环境交互胁迫关系和协调类型进行了实证分析。结果表明:珠三角地区城市化与生态环境之间存在交互胁迫关系,演变轨迹符合双指数曲线,经济水平高的地区的拐点出现时城市化水平较高,且拐点出现晚于经济水平较低的地区;二者协调发展符合"S"型发展机制,2000年以来耦合协调度一直处于磨合发展阶段,系统协调模式属于生态脆弱型。

Rapid urbanization is one of the most important motive forces for our national economic development. In this paper, the comprehensive evaluation index system on urbanization and eco-environment development in the Pearl River Delta region is established, based on the framework of "validation of interactive coercing-application of dynamic coupling-judgment of coordinative types". The entropy method is adopted to determine the index weights. The interactive coercing nonlinear regression model and the coupling coordinative degree calculation model are simultaneously used to empirically analyze the interactive coercing relationship and coordination type between urbanization and eco-environment in 9 cities of this region since 2000. Studies show that there exist interactive coercing relationships between urbanization and eco-environment system in the Pearl River Delta region. Urbanization causes strong coercing on eco-environment, and the eco-environment has obvious constraint on enhancing the level of urbanization. The evolution path agrees with the double exponential function. For the cities with good economy, the urbanization level is higher when the inflection point arises. The appearing time of cities with good economy is later than the cities with poor economy. The coordinative development between urbanization and eco-environment in this region is in accord with the developing mechanism of "S" type.