京津冀协同发展大背景下,北京市制造业转型升级和空间布局调整面临新的挑战。本文基于微观企业数据,采用偏离-份额模型剖析了1996-2010年北京市制造业发展的时空演化特征,基于空间偏离-份额模型,提出京津冀协同发展背景下,未来北京不同功能区制造业疏解方向。研究发现,从功能区层面来讲,北京市制造业由首都功能核心区向城市功能拓展区、城市发展新区以及生态涵养发展区渐次外迁,在此过程中高新技术产业、机械与装备制造业呈集聚发展态势,都市型工业近年来有所回迁,其余制造业逐渐退出北京市。在此基础上,以京津冀协同发展纲要为指导,结合京津冀都市圈各城市产业功能定位和集聚区建设分析了北京市不同功能区制造业未来疏解策略与方向。

Using the shift-share model, this paper analyses the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of manufacturing industry in Beijing from 1996 to 2010. By using spatial shift-share method, this paper points out the manufacturing decentralization direction of different functional areas in Beijing under the background of Beijing Tianjin Hebei integration. The research shows:from function area level, the manufacturing industry in Beijing gradually moves out from Core Area of Capital Function to Development Area of Capital Function. Then it relocates its enterprises to New Area of Urban Development from Core Area of Capital Function or Development Area of Capital Function. As time goes by, the manufacturing industry enterprises in Beijing leaves from these places, gradually getting together in Ecological Conserving and Development Area. Some also agglomerate in Tianjin and Hebei. In this process, high-tech industry is booming quickly, showing a trend of agglomeration. Urban industry is recovering in recent years. And its enterprises move out firstly, then transfer to central districts. Light manufacturing industry begins to decline and gradually migrate to the periphery of Beijing. The raw materials industry has depressed obviously, and gradually exits from Beijing. On the basis of manufacturing industry current characteristics in Beijing, guided by the platform for collaborative development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, following the potential of space structure and space competition of manufacturing industry in each functional area, this paper analyses the manufacturing decentralization direction of different functional areas in Beijing.