对旅游业来说,客源是赖以存在和发展的关键因素。根据游客人数的多少,旅游接待地可相应确定旅游接待服务设施规模,因此对游客数量进行预测是很重要而且是十分必要的。本文提出了一种基于人工神经网络的旅游客源预测方法,用以对旅游客源进行预测。文中首先介绍了神经网络的基本原理,以及BP算法的运算过程。在此基础上,针对入境旅游人数预测的特定问题构造了一个神经网络模型,对近些年入境旅游人数进行了较为准确的预测,并将其结果与传统方法进行了比较。结果表明:该方法能有效地对旅游客源进行预测,结果优于传统方法,具有很高的准确性和鲁棒性。

Tourist quantity is the key factor of existence and development to toruist industry. Tourist site may constitute reception scale according to tourist quantity. So it is very important and necessary to forecast tourist quantity. A tourist quantity forecast method based on artificial neural networks is proposed to forecast tourist quantity. First the paper introduces the basic theory and model of the neural network and the process of Back propagation Algorithm. Based on the above, a neural network model is constructed aiming at particular problem of tourist quantity from abroad. The model forecast exact tourist quantity from abroad in recent years and its effect is compared with the traditional method. The results indicate that the method forecast tourist quantity efficiently. Its effect is better than traditional method and has good exactness and robustness.