以地块作为基本空间单元并以城市活动主体作为模拟对象的精细化模拟是未来城市模型研究的重要方向,大数据(big data)时代的到来也为其提供了重要发展机遇。本文重点对精细化城市模型的主流建模方法进行了介绍,包括元胞自动机(Cellular Automata,CA)、基于主体建模(Agent-based Modelling,ABM)和传统的微观模拟(Microsimulation,MSM)这三种自下而上的微观模拟方法。之后结合精细化城市模型的高标准数据需求问题,对国际上通行的用于精细化模拟数据合成(population synthesis)的方法进行了综述,并给出笔者近年来在精细化城市模拟方面的多项实践案例,最后提出了以GIS为平台,结合CA/ABM/MSM方法,构建我国精细化城市模型的框架体系和关键技术,以期支持我国大城市地区空间政策的制定和评估。

Fine-scale simulation, in which the parcel is the basic spatial unit and urban activity body is the simulation object, is an important research direction for the urban modeling in the future, and the arrival of big data era also provides an important development opportunity for it. In the paper, the mainstream modeling methods for fine-scale urban modeling are introduced mainly, including cellular automata (CA), agentbased modeling(ABM) and traditional Microsimulation (MSM), all of which are microscopic simulation from the bottom up. Then, according with the high-standard data requirements for the fine-scale urban modeling, the paper sums up the internationally acceptable methods for the fine-scale simulation data synthesis (population synthesis), and also gives a number of practical cases about the fine-scale urban modeling in recent years. Finally, the paper puts forward the framework and key technology, based on GIS platform and combined with CA/ABM/MSM method, to construct fine- scale urban modeling, to support the development and assessment of spatial policy in the metropolitan area.