本文应用ESDA并结合标准差指数、变异系数等方法,从空间相关的视角分析新疆各县域城市化发展水平空间差异。结果显示,以非农业人口来计算的新疆城市化水平呈现北疆、东疆、南疆逐次下降的空间格局。1978-2009年间:新疆县域城市化水平的空间自相关测度Moran's I由0.2065上升至0.4414,表明城市化水平格局的空间集聚性在不断增强,城市化空间分异的结构化特征明显。从局域自相关分析来看,区域间具有较明显呈现两极分化,说明新疆城市化水平在空间分布上具有不均衡性。

Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region is one of the five minority autonomous regions in China. It is located northwestern China and the hinterland of the Eurasian Continent, accounting for one sixth of Chinese territory. Xinjiang can be divided into three parts by Tianshan range. The northern part of Tianshan range is called northern Xinjiang, primarily inhabited by nomadic peoples such as Kazaks. Southern part of Tianshan range is called Southern Xinjiang. Settlements in southern Xinjiang are concentrated in the oases of Tarim basin, mainly populated by Uygurs. Estern part of Tianshan range is called Eastern Xinjiang, namely inhabited Uygurs. As a result of considerable economic growth since the Western Development Policy of 1999, Xinjiang has experienced rapid urbanization. The urban population in Xinjiang rose from 20% in 1978 to over 39% in 2010. In addition to this spectacular development, however, Xinjiang has simultaneously faced increasing gaps between its Northern and Eastern parts. With the aid of the methods of statistical analysis and ESDA, this paper analysis the temporal and spatial change of urbanization process as well as the differences of regional development in Xinjiang from the perspective of spatial correlation of the urbanization level. The research results indicate that, regional differences of urbanization level in Xinjiang have experienced two stages such as waving decrease and slow increase. From 1978 to 2009, the spatial autocorrelation Moran's I of urbanization level of different counties in Xinjiang has going up from 0.2065 to 0.4414, and indicates that, the urbanization in Xinjiang shows a concentrating trend which shows a high value and a low value spatial phenomena. and the concentration of low value has a larger proportion. The local Moran' I analysis shows that, the regional urbanization level in Xinjiang shows an abvious polarization trend, which is higher urbanization level in Nortern Xinjiang while that is lower in Southern Xinjiang. It is obvious that, a trend of central cities are gathering at the economic belt on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain will continue for a while; in the Southern Xinjiang, however, urban development show a trend of scattering, internal clustering disparities are very small. Therefore, in the Southern Xinjiang must develop the clustering capacity of central cities.