国际旅游与国际贸易是相互联系的,旅游引发贸易、贸易推动旅游。本文在前期研究工作的基础上,提出了一个旅游与贸易互动的三阶段模型,即旅游引发贸易、贸易推动旅游和偏好-容量限制3个阶段。以日韩东盟8国为例,选用1986年-2009年统计数据,分析了8国入境我国旅游与进出口贸易的关系,构建了入境客流量与进口贸易、出口贸易和进出口贸易3组24个推拉方程。在此基础上,以1992年和2002年为分界点,分析了各阶段入境客流量与进口贸易、出口贸易增长率的变化及弧弹性;依据每万人次入境旅游引发的进出口贸易强度,将日韩东盟8国划分为四种类型,分析了近10年来旅游引起进出口贸易强度的变化,为通过旅游拉动贸易或通过贸易推动入境旅游发展提供了科学依据。

There is a relationship between international tourism and international trade. The tourism development leads to the trade growth and the trade development promotes tourism development. Based on the preliminary studies, this paper proposed a three-stage model of the interaction between tourism and trade from the dynamic evolution. Those are the initial stage: the tourism development leads to international trade, the acceleration stage: the trade development promotes tourism, the terminal stage: the tourism growth suffered the preferences and capacity limitation. Based on this, the eight countries are taken as examples, such as Japanese, Korean and ASEAN. Using the relevant data from 1986 to 2009, The results shows that: (1) from the view of the index such as the statistics and tendency rate, inbound tourists and bilateral trade is increasing every year in China from Japan, Korea and ASEAN. (2) Based on the time series regression of 8 countries, the 3 groups and 24 push-pull equations were constructed in this paper. (3) In accordance with the X-Y scatter plot of time series data, the 1992 and 2002 are the dividing point. The paper divides it into three different stages for the interaction of the tourism and the trade between China with the 8 counties. In addition, the growth rate and the arc elasticity was calculated in the paper, for each stage between inbound tourist and the international trade. (4) We analyze the intensity change of the import and export trade caused by per million inbound tourist in recent 10 years. In the marginal elasticity, Japanese, Korean and ASEAN countries can be divided into four types. Such as, the import trade of Japan and Korea is greater than the export, and the export trade of Vietnam and Philippines is greater than the import. This work offers a scientific basis for pushing the development of tourism and trade and promoting its coordination between China and the other 8 countries.