新疆乡村经济韧性时空演变及影响因素研究

曹开军; 龙顺发

doi:10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2025.01.010

PDF(11019 KB)

人文地理 ›› 2025, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (1) : 89-100. DOI: 10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2025.01.010

经济

新疆乡村经济韧性时空演变及影响因素研究

曹开军^1,2, 龙顺发¹

作者信息 +

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL PATTERN AND INFLUENCING FACOTRS OF RURAL ECONOMIC RESILIENCE IN XINJIANG UYGUR AUTONOMOUS REGION

CAO Kai-jun^1,2, LONG Shun-fa¹

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

文章运用马尔科夫链、面板数据回归等方法探究新疆乡村经济韧性的时空演变趋势及其影响因素。研究发现：① 新疆乡村经济韧性在研究期内呈现逐渐上升趋势，并表现出“北疆＞南疆”的空间特征。同时，随着脱贫攻坚等政策的深入实施，新疆多数贫困县的乡村经济韧性逐步上升至中等水平及以上。②新疆乡村经济韧性短期内表现出较为明显的俱乐部趋同趋势，但其向上跃迁是一个长期过程。空间效应对新疆乡村经济韧性具有重要影响。其中，空间滞后类型的等级越高，其发生上移的概率越大，但主要向相邻类型移动。③ 经济基础、财政自给率与旅游发展水平促进新疆乡村经济韧性的提升；而工业发展水平、产业集中度起到阻碍作用。

Abstract

Rural economy is the important component of China's economy. Ensuing the smooth operation of rural economic is the inevitable requirement for high-quality economic development. Rural economic resilience provides important support and guarantee for the smooth operation of rural system. Taking 83 counties (cites) in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region (for short Xinjiang) as research objects, this paper uses Markov chain and panel data regression to reveal spatial-temporal pattern of rural economic resilience in Xinjiang as well as its influencing factors. The research results show that: 1) Rural economic resilience in Xinjiang showed a gradual upward trend during the study period, and showed the spatial characteristics of "Northern Xinjiang > Southern Xinjiang". Different levels of rural economic resilience in Xinjiang shows obvious "cluster" spatial distribution characteristics. The number of high-level areas show obvious increasing trend, mainly distribute in Economic belt on the Northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains and Industry belt on the Southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains. 2) In the short term, rural economic resilience in Xinjiang has the trend of club convergence. But, with the passing of time, the degree of club convergence is gradually weakened. Moreover, the spatial effect has an important influence on the dynamic evolution trend of rural economic resilience in Xinjiang. 3) Economic base, financial self-sufficiency rate and tourism development have positive effects on the improvement of rural economic resilience in Xinjiang, while industrial development and industrial concentration ratio play obstructive roles.

导出引用

曹开军, 龙顺发. 新疆乡村经济韧性时空演变及影响因素研究[J]. 人文地理. 2025, 40(1): 89-100 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2025.01.010

CAO Kai-jun, LONG Shun-fa. SPATIAL-TEMPORAL PATTERN AND INFLUENCING FACOTRS OF RURAL ECONOMIC RESILIENCE IN XINJIANG UYGUR AUTONOMOUS REGION[J]. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY. 2025, 40(1): 89-100 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2025.01.010

中图分类号： F327

参考文献

[1] 程琳琳,郑洋,王义方.乡村振兴背景下的村庄发展效率——以山东省新泰市为例[J].地理科学,2023,43(4):649-657. [Cheng Linlin, Zheng Yang, Wang Yifang. Rural development efficiency in the context of rural revitalization: A case of Xintai, China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2023,43(4):649-657.]
[2] 李玉恒,黄惠倩,宋传垚.贫困地区乡村经济韧性研究及其启示：以河北省阳原县为例[J].地理科学进展,2021,40(11):1839-1846. [Li Yuheng, Huang Huiqian, Song Chuanyao. Rural economic resilience in poor areas and its enlightenment: Case study of Yangyuan c ounty, Hebei province[J]. Progress in Geography, 2021,40(11):1839-1846.]
[3] 李玉恒,黄惠倩,宋传垚.中国西南贫困地区乡村韧性研究——以重庆市为例[J]. 人文地理,2022,37(5):97-105. [Li Yuheng, Huang Huiqian, Song Chuanyao. Rural resilience in impoverished areas of southwest China: A case sturdy of Chongqing[J]. Human Geography, 2022,37(5):97-105.]
[4] Wilson G A, Hu Z P, Rahman S. Community resilience in rural China: The case of Hu village, Sichuan province[J]. Journal of Rural Studies, 2018,60:130-140.
[5] 资明贵,周怡,罗静,等.山区乡村地域系统韧性测度及影响因素研究——以大别山区罗田县为例[J]. 地理科学进展,2022,41(10): 1819-1832. [Zi Minggui, Zhou Yi, Luo Jing, et al. Measurement and influencing factors of rural regional system resilience in mountainous areas: A case study of Luotian county in the Dabei mountains [J]. Progress in Geography, 2022,41(10):1819-1832.]
[6] 梁坤丽,刘维奇.农村产业结构升级对农村经济韧性的影响[J].经济与管理,2023,37(3):63-73. [Liang Kunli, Liu Weiqi. The impact of upgrading of rural industrial structure on rural economic resilience[J]. Economy and Management, 2023,37(3):63-73.]
[7] 丁建军,王璋,柳艳红,等.中国连片特困区经济韧性测度及影响因素分析[J]. 地理科学进展,2020,39(6):924-937. [Ding Jianjun, Wang Zhang, Liu Yanhong, et al. Measurement of economic resilience of contiguous poverty-stricken areas in China and influencing factor analysis[J]. Progress in Geography, 2020,39(6):924-937.]
[8] 王静,张小雷,杜宏茹.新疆县域经济空间格局演化特征[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(4):470-478. [Wang Jing, Zhang Xiaolei, Du Hongru. Spatial pattern evolvement and characteristics of the economy in Xinjiang at the county level[J]. Progress in Geography, 2011, 30(4):470-478.]
[9] 刘逸,纪捷韩,许汀汀,等. 战略耦合对区域经济韧性的影响研究——以广东省为例[J].地理研究,2021,40(12):3382-3398. [ Liu Yi, Ji Jiehan, Xu Tingting, et al. The impact of strategic coupling on regional economic resilience under globalization: A case study of Guangdong province[J]. Geographical Research, 2021,40(12):3382-3398.]
[10] Martin R. Regional economic resilience, hysteresis and recessionary shocks[J]. Journal of Economic Geography, 2012,12(1):1-32.
[11] Martin R, Sunley P. On the notion of regional economic resilience: Conceptualization and explanation[J]. Journal of Economic Geography, 2015,15(1):1-42.
[12] 陈梦远. 国际区域经济韧性研究进展——基于演化论的理论分析框架介绍[J]. 地理科学进展,2017,36(11):1435-1444. [ Chen Mengyuan. An international literature review of regional economic resilience: Theories and practices based on evolutionary perspective [J]. Progress in Geography, 2017,36(11):1435-1444.]
[13] Pendall R, Foster K A, Cowell M. Resilience andregions: Building understanding of the metaphor[J]. Cambridge Journal of Regions Economy and Society, 2009,3(1):71-84.
[14] Briguglio L, Cordina G, Farrugia N, et al. Economic vulnerability and resilience: Concepts and measurements[J]. Oxford Development Studies, 2009,37(3):229-247.
[15] 袁丰,熊雪蕾,徐紫腾,等.长江经济带经济韧性空间分异与驱动因素[J].地理科学进展,2023,42(2):249-259. [Yuan Feng, Xiong Xuelei, Xu Ziteng, et al. Spatial differentiation and driving factors of economic resilience in the Yangtze River economic belt, China[J]. Progress in Geography, 2023,42(2):249-259.]
[16] 谭俊涛,赵宏波,刘文新,等.中国区域经济韧性特征与影响因素分析[J]. 地理科学,2020,40(2):173-181. [Tan Juntao, Zhao Hongbo, Liu Wenxin, et al. Regional economic resilience and influential mechanism during economic crises in China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2020,40(2):173-181.]
[17] Feng Y, Lee C C, Peng D Y. Does regional integration improve economic resilience? Evidence from urban agglomerations in China[J]. Sustainable Cities and Society, 2023, 88: 104273. https://doi. org/ 10.1016/j.scs.2022.104273.
[18] 林耿,徐昕,杨帆. 佛山市产业专业化、多样化与经济韧性的关系研究[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(9): 1493-1504. [Lin Geng, Xu Xin, Yang Fan. Specialization, variety and economic resilience of specialized towns in Foshan[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2020, 40(9):1493-1504.]
[19] 陈安平.集聚与中国城市经济韧性[J].世界经济,2022,45(1):158-181. [Chen Anping. Agglomeration and urban economic resilience in China[J]. The Journal of World Economy, 2022,45(1):158-181.]
[20] 甘畅,王凯.湖南省旅游发展与经济韧性的耦合协调性研究[J]. 地理与地理信息科学,2022,38(2):137-144. [Gan Chang, Wang Kai. Research on coupling coordination of tourism development and economic resilience in Hunan province[J]. Geography and GeoInformation Science, 2022,38(2):137-144.]
[21] Cui Z Z, Li E, Li Y H, et al. The impact of poverty alleviation policies on rural economic resilience in impoverished areas: A case study of Lankao county, China[J]. Journal of Rural Studies, 2023, 99:92-106.
[22] 姚爽,商兆奎,刘艺璇,等.湖南省武陵山片区县域乡村经济韧性测度及时空格局演变研究[J]. 云南农业大学学报(社会科学), 2022, 16(5):53-61. [Yao Shuang, Shang Zhaokui, Liu Yixuan, et al. Resilience measurement and temporal and spatial pattern evolution of county rural economy in Wuling mountain area, Hunan province[J]. Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University (Social Science), 2022,16(5):53-61.]
[23] 李东麟,廖和平,郑萧,等.西南丘陵山区乡村经济韧性测度及空间格局研究——以重庆市为例[J]. 西南大学学报(自然科学版), 2022, 44(11): 13-24. [Li Donglin, Liao Heping, Zheng Xiao, et al. Study on the measurement and spatial pattern of rural economic resilience in hilly and mountainous areas of southwest China: A case study of Chongqing[J]. Journal of Southwest University (Natural Science Edition), 2022,44(11):13-24.]
[24] 何珮珺,谭词.电子商务与乡村经济韧性——基于“电子商务进农村综合示范”政策的经验证据[J]. 中南财经政法大学学报, 2023(1):97-108. [He Peijun, Tan Ci. E-commerce and rural economic resilience: Empirical evidence based on the "comprehensive demonstration E-commerce into rural areas" policy[J]. Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, 2023(1):97-108.]
[25] 黄珍杰,吴雄周.我国乡村经济韧性测度及时空分异特征研究[J]. 农业与技术, 2023,43(3):152-159. [Huang Zhenjie, Wu Xiongzhou. Study on rural economic resilience measurement and spatiotemporal differentiation in China[J]. Agriculture and Technology, 2023, 43(3):152-159.]
[26] 程慧,徐琼,郭尧琦.中国旅游生态效率的俱乐部趋同研究[J].华中师范大学学报(自然科学版),2021,55(2):289-300. [Cheng Hui, Xu Qiong, Guo Yaoqi. Club convergence research on China's tourism eco-efficiency[J]. Journal of Central China Normal University (Natural Sciences), 2021,55(2):289-300.]
[27] 王松茂,牛金兰.黄河流域城市生态韧性时空演变及其影响因素[J]. 生态学报,2023,43(20):8309-8320. [Wang Songmao, Niu Jinlan. Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of urban ecological resilience in the Yellow River basin[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2023,43(20):8309-8320.]
[28] 李玉恒,阎佳玉,刘彦随.基于乡村弹性的乡村振兴理论认知与路径研究[J].地理学报,2019,74(10):2001-2010. [Li Yuheng, Yan Jiayu, Liu Yansui. The cognition and path analysis of rural revitalization theory based on rural resilience[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019,74(10): 2001-2010.]
[29] 陈勤昌,王兆峰.武陵山片区国土开发强度与经济韧性时空耦合特征及互动效应[J].经济地理,2023,43(4):41-50. [Chen Qinchang, Wang Zhaofeng. Spatio-temporal coupling and interactive effects of land development intensity and economic resilience in the Wuling mountains area[J]. Economic Geography, 2023,43(4):41-50.]
[30] 孙九霞,黄凯洁,王学基. 基于地方实践的旅游发展与乡村振兴：逻辑与案例[J]. 旅游学刊,2020,35(3):39-49. [Sun Jiuxia, Huang Kaijie, Wang Xueji. Tourism development and rural revitalization based on local experiences: Logic and cases[J]. Tourism Tribune, 2020,35(3):39-49.]
[31] 胡霄,李红波,李智,等.河北省县域乡村韧性测度及时空演变[J]. 地理与地理信息科学,2021,37(3):89-96. [Hu Xiao, Li Hongbo, Li Zhi, et al. Measurement and spatio-temporal evolution of rural resilience at county level in Hebei province[J]. Geography and GeoInformation Science, 2021,37(3):89-96.]
[32] 傅为忠,储刘平.长三角一体化视角下制造业高质量发展评价研究——基于改进的CRITIC-熵权法组合权重的TOPSIS评价模型[J]. 工业技术经济,2020,39(9):145-152. [Fu Weizhong, Chu Liuping. Research on the evaluation of high-quality development of manufacturing industry from the perspective of integration of the Yangtze River Delta: TOPSIS evaluation model based on improved CRITICAL-entropy weight method[J]. Journal of Industrial Technological Economics, 2020,39(9):145-152.]
[33] 谭燕芝,海霞,张文哲.中部地区县域经济韧性空间分异及其驱动因素[J]. 经济地理,2023,43(11):17-24,35. [Tan Yanzhi, Hai Xia, Zhang Wenzhe. Spatial divergence and driving factors of economic resilience of Chinese counties in central region[J]. Economic Geography, 2023,43(11):17-24,35.]
[34] 曹开军,龙顺发.新疆县市旅游产业集聚演变及其影响因素[J].经济地理,2022,42(12):205-213. [Cao Kaijun, Long Shunfa. Evolution of tourism industry agglomeration and its influencing factors based on counties in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region[J]. Economic Geography, 2022,42(12):205-213.]
[35] 李江苏,孟琳琳,李韦华,等.黄河流域生产性服务业综合发展水平时空演变及影响因素分析[J]. 人文地理, 2023,38(2):116-125. [Li Jiangsu, Meng Linlin, Li Weihua, et al. Spatial-temporal pattern and influencing factors of comprehensive development level of producer services in the Yellow River basin[J]. Human Geography, 2023,38(2):116-125.]
[36] Schreiber S. The Hausman test statistic can be negative even asymptotically[J]. Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, 2008, 228(4):394-405.
[37] 王丽艳,张凯强,马光荣.资源禀赋能否转换为地区创新优势？[J]. 财经问题研究,2023(11):31-46. [Wang Liyan, Zhang Kaiqiang, Ma Guangrong. Whether resource endowment can be converted into innovation advantages of regions?[J]. Research on Financial and Economic Issues, 2023(11):31-46.]
[38] 李连刚,张平宇,程钰,等. 黄河流域经济韧性时空演变与影响因素研究[J]. 地理科学,2022,42(4):557-567. [Li Liangang, Zhang Pingyu, Cheng Yu, et al. Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of economic resilience in the Yellow River basin[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2022,42(4):557-567.]
[39] Lee Y J A, Kim J, Jang S, et al. Tourism and economic resilience[J]. Annals of Tourism Research, 2021, 87: 103024. https://doi. org/ 10.1016/j.annals.2020.103024.