区域港口体系的结构和层次是不断变化的,根据各港口功能和作用的大小不同的变化,港口体系演化变现为集中化发展和分散化发展两种趋势。影响港口体系演化的因素很多,具体可归纳为技术进步因素、区位因素、航运市场因素、政策和政治因素四类。在集装箱革命之前,区位因素是影响港口体系结构的主要因素,而集装箱化之后,新技术的应用、航运市场在港口体系层次变化中的作用越来越明显。政策和政治因素是港口体系发展的背景因素,其影响力一直较大。最后通过构建港口体系动力模型,详细阐述了各个因素对港口体系演化的影响过程和驱动机制,分析了不同因素对于港口体系集中化和分散化发展的促进和阻碍作用。

The hierarchy of port system changes with the elemental port develops independently. The evolution of spatial pattern can be explained with concentration and deconcentration process, which means dominance ranking with one single or several ports in one regional port system. Though former researcher enumerated several factors that influence the changing process, few and invariably generalized attempts were made to explain with comprehensive and systematic analysis. A summary of four factors was assessed to expound the port system evolution, including "technological progress", "transport system and hinterland development", "stockholders in shipping market", "policy and politics". And the transport system and hinterland development affect much more before containerization, while after that, the new technology application, stockholders in shipping market has greater impact on the evolution. Finally, a system dynamics model of the port system evolution was constructed to illustrate the process and driving mechanism of every factor's impact on the evolution. Each factor can be regarded as a sub-system in the dynamics model and push or expedite the evolution process. The technological changes, especial the application of container transport, stimulate subsequent transportation innovation, for example, larger-sized vessel. The port that meets new requirement, such as advanced equipment, efficient organization and management, occupies the development priority in the region and becomes the top or hub one. Meanwhile, the diseconomy of scale, traffic congestion, land lack and environmental problem gives the chance for the feeder ports, then the port system switches to deconcentration development. The hinterland development sub-system is the basic dynamics of elemental ports. The economy development generates more cargo for the port in the same region and helps the port increase the throughput, while transport network's structure can assemble the cargo to the main port if the whole inland network only connect to one, or distribute the cargo to other niche ports in the region if the inland network trends to connect more ports and make the port system toward deconcentration. The sub-system of shipping company or shipping alliance is interactive with the former two systems.