NON-LINEAR AND THRESHOLD EFFECT OF URBAN RAIL TRANSIT ON LAND PREMIUMS: A CASE OF NINGBO

Bu-qing NIU; Xiong-bin LIN; Wen-wan JIN; Xing-chuan GAO

doi:10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2026.03.014

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HUMAN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2026, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (3) : 142-150, 173. DOI: 10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2026.03.014

Transportation

NON-LINEAR AND THRESHOLD EFFECT OF URBAN RAIL TRANSIT ON LAND PREMIUMS: A CASE OF NINGBO

Bu-qing NIU ¹ ,
Xiong-bin LIN ¹^,²^,³^,* ,
Wen-wan JIN ¹^,² ,
Xing-chuan GAO ¹^,²

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Abstract

Current empirical studies have largely examined the linear effect of rail transit accessibility on land values, but few explore their non-linear correlations by machine learning. To fill this understanding gap, by using the city of Ningbo as an example, this paper examines the non-linear effects of location, neighborhood, and parcel characteristics on land prices through a gradient-boosted decision tree(GBDT) model. The land transaction data and point-of-interest(POI) data of various types of public services are employed. The findings show that: 1) The distance from the parcel to the nearest rail transit station ranks 5 th in relative importance among these variables and exerts an influence on land prices. 2) High-speed rail accessibility has a "U-shape" non-linear impact on land prices; the effects of POIs like shopping, scenic, and medical facilities on land prices show a general trend transforming from a negative to a positive correlation. 3) Compared with the hedonic pricing models, GBDT has a better degree of fitting result, which reflects the advantages of machine learning. 4) The effective thresholds of rail transit accessibility on the land value premium of residential and commercial parcels are 4 km and 2.2 km respectively, and the threshold effect on industrial land price appreciation is insignificant.

Key words

urban rail transit / GBDT / land value / non-linear effect / threshold effect

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Bu-qing NIU , Xiong-bin LIN , Wen-wan JIN , et al. NON-LINEAR AND THRESHOLD EFFECT OF URBAN RAIL TRANSIT ON LAND PREMIUMS: A CASE OF NINGBO[J]. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY. 2026, 41(3): 142-150, 173 https://doi.org/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2026.03.014

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