Region
Jin-xuan LI, Jin-yang LIU, Peng ZENG, Yuan CHEN, Yi-wen WANG
During China's economic transition, declining population growth and regional re-differentiation have accelerated urban-rural shrinkage in major urban regions. Focusing on the connotations of "phenomenon-process-effect", this study constructs a two-step assessment framework for identifying urban-rural shrinkage from the perspective of urbanization, and examines its spatio-temporal differentiation and correlation with urbanization. Taking 149 county-level units in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2000 to 2020 as the research objects, the study conducts empirical analysis using population census, statistical yearbook, land-use, and nighttime light data. The results show that urban-rural shrinkage is characterized by spatial agglomeration, inertial development, and self-limitation, with the overall pattern shifting from scattered shrinkage to more extensive shrinkage. At the county level, urban-rural shrinkage is closely associated with urbanization: in terms of scale, the degree of shrinkage affects the direction of urbanization change; in terms of quality, shrinkage exerts a stronger negative effect on urbanization quality. As China enters the middle and late stages of urbanization transition, the stabilizing mobility of population between urban and rural areas and the weakening of on-site urbanization have made population, land-use, and industrial factors more active in shaping county-level shrinkage. This study provides evidence for governing urban-rural shrinkage and improving urbanization quality.