Lin SUN, Zi YE, Yu-qi LU, Hai-yan SHAO, Shu-yun HU
HUMAN GEOGRAPHY.
Online available: 2025-12-25
As US-China rivalry shifts focus to the "Indo-Pacific," the US's "Indo-Pacific Arc" disrupts regional stability. This paper applies "territorial trap" theory to develop a geopolitical influence model integrated with the wedge strategy. Analyzing spatiotemporal changesin US and Chinese influence within the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" region provides recommendations for China. Findings: 1) Overall US-China influence evolved through "low volatility" (2011—2015), "medium convergence" (2016—2018), and "high stability" (2019—2021) phases, with China's influence growing 11.2% annually; 2) Country-level analysis shows three power evolution types: stable, reversal, fluctuation; 3) Geopolitical categorization reveals US advantage (Australia, Philippines, Japan, New Zealand), China advantage (Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei), and balanced influence (India, South Korea, Thailand, Singapore); 4) Influence model factors align with wedge strategy methods. Strategically, China should prioritize reward wedges in advantage zones and mixed coercive/reward strategies elsewhere.