基于综合可达性的北京城市增长模拟与管控模式优化

doi:10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2018.04.012

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摘要社会经济活动的空间重构与交通设施配置息息相关，可达性成为优化城市空间结构，调控城市空间开发的重要手段。在以矢栅一体化的综合可达性测度并构建城市增长模型的基础上，对北京城市增长进行了成功模拟，透视了基于综合可达性导向发展模式的基本特征与主要问题，并提出了基于综合可达性的城市增长调控模式优化方案。研究发现：①城市增长密集发生在建成区周围可达性优越的区域，随着与城市中心的距离增加，城市增长的概率降低，反映了北京单中心的城市发展模式；②受城市规划与交通设施规划失调影响，可达性提升程度越大的区域并不一定带来更高的城市增长开发概率，严重削弱了可达性对城市增长的引导作用；③基于综合可达性的城市增长调控模式的优化方案，要以交通设施规划为基础，并合理耦合空间规划，才能更为有效地引导城市空间良性增长并预防规划失效。基于综合可达性的城市增长模型建立与调控模式优化方案的提出，对于确立与提升交通引导城市增长的基础性地位，优化城市空间结构具有重要的理论和现实意义。

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关键词 ：北京, 城市增长, 调控模式, 交通, 可达性

Abstract：With rapid construction of transportation facilities, "Temporal Distance" is shortened, which causes changes in urban spatial structure. The spatial restructuring of social economic activities is closely related to transportation facilities. Accessibility has become an important means of optimizing urban spatial structure and regulating urban space development. Based on the measure of comprehensive accessibility by the integration of vector and raster and the construction of urban growth model, a successful simulation of urban growth in Beijing is carried out. On this basis, this article analyses the basic characteristics and main problems of the comprehensive accessibility-oriented development pattern, and proposes the optimization plan of regulation mode of urban growth based on comprehensive accessibility. The results show that:1)Accessibility enlarges the space scope of urban, but the degree of accessibility improvement has obvious spatial differences. Intensive urban growth occurs around the built-up areas with superior accessibility. 2)Different traffic systems determine the different urban land use patterns and expansion models. 3)The optimization plan of regulation mode of urban growth based on comprehensive accessibility needs to base on the transportation facilities planning, and implements coupling with spatial planning reasonably.

Key words： Beijing urban growth control mode traffic accessibility

收稿日期: 2016-09-05

基金资助:

国家自然科学基金项目（41601164，71641028）；国家自然科学基金重点基金项目（41530751）；中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所秉维优秀人才基金项目（2017RC202）

通讯作者: 杨振山(1979-),新疆博乐人,副研究员,硕导,主要研究方向为城市与区域经济。E-mail:yangzs@igsnrr.ac.cn。 E-mail: yangzs@igsnrr.ac.cn

作者简介: 邓羽(1985-),湖北恩施人,副研究员,硕导,主要从事城市发展与空间管治研究。E-mail:dengy@igsnrr.ac.cn。

引用本文:

邓羽, 杨振山, 宋涛. 基于综合可达性的北京城市增长模拟与管控模式优化[J]. 人文地理, 2018, 33(4): 82-87. DENG Yu, YANG Zhen-shan, SONG Tao. DYNAMIC SIMULATION AND OPTIMIZATION CONTROL OF LAND USE CHANGE BASED ON TRANSPORTATION ACCESSIBILITY: A CASE STUDY OF BEIJING. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 33(4): 82-87.

链接本文:

http://rwdl.xisu.edu.cn/CN/10.13959/j.issn.1003-2398.2018.04.012 或 http://rwdl.xisu.edu.cn/CN/Y2018/V33/I4/82

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[21]	邓羽,司月芳.北京市城区扩展的空间格局与影响因素[J].地理研究,2015,34(12):2247-2256.[Deng Yu, Si Yuefang. The spatial pattern and influence factors of urbanexpansion:A case study of Beijing[J]. Geographical Research, 2015,34(12):2247-2256.]
[22]	邓羽.城市空间扩展的自组织特征与规划管控效应评估——以北京市为例[J].地理研究,2016,35(2):353-362.[Deng Yu. Self-organization characteristics of urban extension and the planning effect evaluation:A case study of Beijing[J]. Geographical Research, 2016,35(2):353-362.]
[22]	邓羽.城市空间扩展的自组织特征与规划管控效应评估——以北京市为例[J].地理研究,2016,35(2):353-362.[Deng Yu. Self-organization characteristics of urban extension and the planning effect evaluation:A case study of Beijing[J]. Geographical Research, 2016,35(2):353-362.]
[10]	Knight R L, Trygg L L. Land-use impacts of rapid transit systems:implications of recent experience[Z]. Washington:Dept. of Transportation, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Policy, Plans, and International Affairs, 1977.
[14]	Han B R. Neighborhood land value changes from subway construction:Case study generalized least squares[J]. Dankook University Regional Studies, 1991,11:125-1461.
[15]	郑捷奋,刘洪玉.深圳地铁建设对站点周边住宅价值的影响[J].铁道学报,2005,27(5):11-18.[Zheng Fenjie, Liu Hongyu. The impact of URRT on house prices in Shenzhen[J]. Journal of the China Railway Society, 2005,27(5):11-18.]
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[11]	Arrington Jr. G B. Portland's Light Rail:A Successful Public Private Partnership[M]. Boston:American Society of Civil Engineers, 1990:14-28.
[16]	Heenan G W. The economic effect of rapid transit on real estate development[J]. Appraisal Journal, 1968,36(2):212-224.
[12]	Workman S L, Brod D. Measuring the neighborhood benefits of rail transit accessibility[J]. Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1997,1576(1):147-153.
[17]	Bowes D R, Keith R I. Identifying the impacts of rail transit stations on residential property values[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 2001,50(1):1-25.
[13]	Sivitanidou R. Do office-commercial firms value access to service employment centers? A hedonic value analysis within Polycentric Los Angeles[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 1996,40(2):125-149.
[18]	Cevero R. Transit-oriented development in the United States:Experiences, challenges, and prospects[J]. Bmc Research Notes, 2004,8(1):1-7.
[19]	王姣娥,金凤君,莫辉辉,等.TOD开发模式解析及研究述评[J].交通与运输,2007(12):19-22.[Wang Jiao'e, Jin Fengjun, Mo Huihui, et al. Analysis and review of Transit Oriented Development[J]. Traffic & Transportation, 2007(12):19-22.]
[20]	邓羽,蔡建明,杨振山,等.北京城区交通时间可达性测度及其空间特征分析[J].地理学报,2012,67(2):169-178.[Deng Yu, Cai Jianming, Yang Zhenshan, et al. Measuring time accessibility with its spatial characteristics in urban areas of Beijing[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012,67(2):169-178.]
[21]	邓羽,司月芳.北京市城区扩展的空间格局与影响因素[J].地理研究,2015,34(12):2247-2256.[Deng Yu, Si Yuefang. The spatial pattern and influence factors of urbanexpansion:A case study of Beijing[J]. Geographical Research, 2015,34(12):2247-2256.]
[22]	邓羽.城市空间扩展的自组织特征与规划管控效应评估——以北京市为例[J].地理研究,2016,35(2):353-362.[Deng Yu. Self-organization characteristics of urban extension and the planning effect evaluation:A case study of Beijing[J]. Geographical Research, 2016,35(2):353-362.]
[14]	Han B R. Neighborhood land value changes from subway construction:Case study generalized least squares[J]. Dankook University Regional Studies, 1991,11:125-1461.
[15]	郑捷奋,刘洪玉.深圳地铁建设对站点周边住宅价值的影响[J].铁道学报,2005,27(5):11-18.[Zheng Fenjie, Liu Hongyu. The impact of URRT on house prices in Shenzhen[J]. Journal of the China Railway Society, 2005,27(5):11-18.]
[23]	Yu Deng, Sumeeta Srinivasan. Urban land use change and regional access A case study in Beijing, China[J]. Habitat International, 2016,51:103-113.
[16]	Heenan G W. The economic effect of rapid transit on real estate development[J]. Appraisal Journal, 1968,36(2):212-224.
[17]	Bowes D R, Keith R I. Identifying the impacts of rail transit stations on residential property values[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 2001,50(1):1-25.
[18]	Cevero R. Transit-oriented development in the United States:Experiences, challenges, and prospects[J]. Bmc Research Notes, 2004,8(1):1-7.
[19]	王姣娥,金凤君,莫辉辉,等.TOD开发模式解析及研究述评[J].交通与运输,2007(12):19-22.[Wang Jiao'e, Jin Fengjun, Mo Huihui, et al. Analysis and review of Transit Oriented Development[J]. Traffic & Transportation, 2007(12):19-22.]
[20]	邓羽,蔡建明,杨振山,等.北京城区交通时间可达性测度及其空间特征分析[J].地理学报,2012,67(2):169-178.[Deng Yu, Cai Jianming, Yang Zhenshan, et al. Measuring time accessibility with its spatial characteristics in urban areas of Beijing[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012,67(2):169-178.]
[21]	邓羽,司月芳.北京市城区扩展的空间格局与影响因素[J].地理研究,2015,34(12):2247-2256.[Deng Yu, Si Yuefang. The spatial pattern and influence factors of urbanexpansion:A case study of Beijing[J]. Geographical Research, 2015,34(12):2247-2256.]
[22]	邓羽.城市空间扩展的自组织特征与规划管控效应评估——以北京市为例[J].地理研究,2016,35(2):353-362.[Deng Yu. Self-organization characteristics of urban extension and the planning effect evaluation:A case study of Beijing[J]. Geographical Research, 2016,35(2):353-362.]
[23]	Yu Deng, Sumeeta Srinivasan. Urban land use change and regional access A case study in Beijing, China[J]. Habitat International, 2016,51:103-113.