HOW MIGRATION AFFECTS POPULATION SECURITY IN CHINA'S BORDER REGIONS:SPATIAL DIFFERENCES,MECHANISM AND DRIVING FORCE
DUAN Cheng-rong1, SHENG Dan-yang2, LIU Tao3,4
1. Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;
2. School of Sociology and Population Studies, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;
3. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
4. Future Cities Research Center, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Abstract：With the accumulation of negative population growth momentum and emergence of diversified migration, it has become a new challenge to the stability of population in the border areas. In this context, this article analyses the evolution of population and migration in China's border area, with a special attention on the influence of migration on the population security in border counties. Using the data of 2000, 2010, and 2020 National Population Census of China and the 2005, 2015 China 1% National Population Survey, this paper employs visual analysis to capture population growth and migration patterns in China's 136 border counties from 2000 to 2020. Results show that the population of border counties is still stable but declining. Migration has gradually become the major factor of border population change, and the impact of out-migration is continuously increasing especially since 2010. Migration in different regions is affected by different factors: The growth rate of per capital GDP has the most significant effect on weakening the out-migration rate and increasing the in-migration rate in the out-migration risk areas; the policy preference index has a significant positive impact on the in-migration rate in areas with stable population growth; the years of education have a positive significant impact on out-migration rate in both relative stable and closed growth area, but it is not significant in the out-migration risk areas.
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